Are Russian forces getting ready for war
in Ukraine? At least 100,000 troops are positioned within reach of Ukraine's
borders and US President Joe Biden is expecting some kind of military move.
Russia may deny any plans for invasion but
it has carved out a series of demands from the West that cannot be met. What
happens next could jeopardize Europe's entire security structure.
Why is Russia
threatening Ukraine?
Russia has long resisted Ukraine's move
towards European institutions, and Nato in particular. Its core demand is for
the West to guarantee Ukraine will not join Nato, a defensive alliance of 30
countries.
Ukraine shares borders with both the EU
and Russia, but as a former Soviet republic it has deep social and cultural
ties with Russia, and Russian is widely spoken there.
The threat is being taken seriously
because Russia has invaded Ukraine before.
When Ukrainians deposed their pro-Russian
president in early 2014, Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimean peninsula
and backed separatists who captured large swathes of eastern Ukraine. The
rebels have fought the Ukrainian military ever since in a conflict that has
claimed more than 14,000 lives.
How big is the risk of
invasion?
Russia
says it has no plans to attack Ukraine: and armed forces chief Valery Gerasimov
even denounced reports of an impending invasion as a lie.
But
President Vladimir Putin has threatened "appropriate retaliatory
military-technical measures" if what he calls the West's aggressive
approach continues.
Nato's
secretary-general warns the risk of conflict is real and President Biden says
his guess is that Russia will move in.
The US says Russia has offered no
explanation for the troops posted close to Ukraine - and thousands of Russian
troops have headed to Belarus, close to Ukraine's northern border, for
exercises.
Russia's deputy foreign minister compared
the current situation to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis when the US and Soviet
Union came close to nuclear conflict.
Western intelligence suggests a Russian
incursion or invasion could happen sometime in early 2022. President Biden's
top military officer, Gen Mark Milley, said that the scale of the Russian
forces would cause a significant amount of casualties, and fighting in urban
areas would be horrific.
What does Russia want
from Nato?
Russia has
spoken of a "moment of truth" in recasting its relationship with
Nato. "For us, it's absolutely mandatory to ensure Ukraine never, ever
becomes a member of Nato," said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.
President
Putin explained that if Ukraine joined Nato, the alliance might try to
recapture Crimea.
Moscow accuses Nato countries of
"pumping" Ukraine with weapons and the US of stoking tensions to
contain Russia's development. Mr. Putin has complained Russia has "nowhere
further to retreat to - do they think we'll just sit idly by?"
It demands no more eastward expansion and
an end to Nato military activity in Eastern Europe. That would mean combat
units being pulled out of Poland and the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, and no missiles deployed in countries such as Poland and
Romania.
In President Putin's eyes, the West
promised back in 1990 that Nato would expand "not an inch to the
east" but did so anyway.
That was before the collapse of the Soviet
Union, however, so the promise made to then-Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev
only referred to East Germany in the context of a reunified Germany.
Mr. Gorbachev said later that "the
topic of Nato expansion was never discussed" at the time.
What does Russia want
with Ukraine?
Russia seized Crimea in 2014 arguing it
had a historic claim to it. Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, which
collapsed in December 1991 and Mr. Putin said it was the "disintegration of
historical Russia".
A clue to President Putin's thinking on
Ukraine came in a lengthy piece last year when he called Russians
and Ukrainians "one nation". He labeled Ukraine's current
leaders as running an "anti-Russian project".
Russia has also become frustrated that a
2015 Minsk peace deal for eastern Ukraine is far from being fulfilled.
There are still no arrangements for
independently monitored elections in the separatist regions. Russia denies
accusations that it is part of the lingering conflict.
Can Russian action be
stopped?
President Putin has spoken several times
to Mr. Biden and high-level talks continue. He has expressed hope that a
solution can be found, but Russian officials have warned that Western rejection
of their key demands is leading to a "dead end".
The question is how far Russia will go.
President Biden has warned that a full-scale invasion would be a disaster for
Russia. But if it was a minor incursion, he said controversially that the West
would "end up having to fight about what to do".
The White House has stressed any move
across the border constitutes a renewed invasion - but points out Russia has
other weapons, including cyber-attacks and paramilitary tactics. When 70
Ukrainian government websites went down in January, Russia denied Ukrainian
accusations that it was behind the attack.
The Pentagon has accused Russia of
preparing a so-called false-flag operation, with operatives ready to carry out
acts of sabotage against Russian-backed rebels, to provide a pretext for
invasion. Russia has denied it.
Russia has also handed out 500,000
passports in rebel-run areas, so if it does not get what it wants then it could
justify any action as protecting its own citizens.
However, if Russia's only aim is to force
Nato away from its backyard, there is no sign of it succeeding.
Nato's 30 members have turned down flat
any attempt to tie their hands for the future. "We will not allow anyone
to slam closed Nato's open-door policy," said US Deputy Secretary of State
Wendy Sherman.
Ukraine is looking for a clear timeline to
join and Nato says Russia has "no veto, no right to interfere in that
process".
And non-Nato members Sweden and Finland have
also rejected Russia's attempt to stop them from beefing up their ties with the
alliance. "We will not let go of our room for maneuver," said
Finland's prime minister.
How far will the West
go for Ukraine?
The US and other Nato allies have made
clear they have no plans to send combat troops to Ukraine itself but are
instead offering support. The Pentagon has put 8,500 combat-ready troops on
alert, which could be deployed to Nato countries in Eastern Europe at short
notice.
The main tools in the West's armory
appear to be sanctions and military aid in the form of advisers and weapons.
Poland has offered an array of
surveillance drones, mortar bombs, and portable air-defense systems. The UK,
Denmark, Canada, the Czech Republic, and the Baltic republics have also offered
security assistance.
President Biden has threatened Russia's
leader with measures "like none he's ever seen" if Ukraine is
attacked. So what would they involve?
The ultimate economic hit would be to
disconnect Russia's banking system from the international Swift payment system.
That has always been seen very much as a last resort, and there is concern it
could badly impact the US and European economies.
Another key threat is to prevent the
opening of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Germany, and approval for
that is currently being decided by Germany's energy regulator.
President Biden has also warned that he
would consider personal sanctions on Vladimir Putin if Russia invades Ukraine.
The UK has also warned that "those in and around the Kremlin will have
nowhere to hide".
What would a deal look
like?
So far, Russia has been unimpressed with
the Western response to its demands.
But an indication of where the West is
looking for a possible deal may have come from a leaked document sent to Moscow
by the US and Nato.
In it, the US says it could be willing to
start talks on limiting short- and medium-range missiles as well as offering
negotiations on a new Start treaty on intercontinental missiles.
Washington would also provide reassurance
that it had no cruise missiles in Poland or Romania as part of a
"transparency mechanism", with Russia providing reassurance on two
Russian missiles bases.
Written By Paul Kirby
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