As the number of dead climbs, he is now
accused of shattering the peace in Europe and what happens next could jeopardize
the continent's entire security structure.
Where
have Russian troops attacked and why?
Airports and military headquarters were
hit first, near cities across Ukraine, including the main Boryspil
international airport in Kyiv.
Then tanks and troops rolled into Ukraine
in the northeast, near Kharkiv, a city of 1.4 million people; in the east near
Luhansk, from neighboring Belarus in the north and Crimea in the south.
Paratroops seized a key airbase just outside Kyiv and Russian troops landed in
Ukraine's big port cities of Odesa and Mariupol too.
Moments before the invasion began,
President Putin went on TV declaring that Russia could not feel "safe,
develop and exist" because of what he called a constant threat from modern
Ukraine.
Many of
his arguments were false or irrational. He claimed his goal was to protect
people subjected to bullying and genocide and aim for the
"demilitarisation and de-Nazification" of Ukraine. There has been no
genocide in Ukraine - it is a vibrant democracy led by a president who is
Jewish. "How could I be a Nazi?" said Volodymyr Zelensky, who likened
Russia's onslaught to Nazi Germany's invasion in World War Two.
President
Putin has frequently accused Ukraine of being taken over by extremists, ever
since its pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was ousted in 2014 after
months of protests against his rule. Russia then retaliated by seizing the
southern region of Crimea and triggering a rebellion in the east, backing
separatists who have fought Ukrainian forces in a war that has claimed 14,000
lives.
Late in
2021, he began deploying big numbers of Russian troops close to Ukraine's
borders. Then this week he scrapped a 2015 peace deal for the east and
recognized areas under rebel control as independent.
Russia has
long resisted Ukraine's move towards the European Union and the West's
defensive military alliance Nato. Announcing Russia's invasion, he accused Nato
of threatening "our historic future as a nation".
How far will Russia go?
Russia has
refused to say if it seeks to overthrow Ukraine's democratically elected
government, although it believes that ideally Ukraine should be "freed,
cleansed of the Nazis". Mr. Putin spoke of bringing to court "those
who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians".
It was a
thinly veiled hint and by invading from Belarus and seizing Antonov airport
close to the outskirts of Kyiv, there is little doubt that the capital is well
within his sights.
In the
days before the invasion, when up to 200,000 troops were within reach of
Ukraine's borders, he had focused his attention on the east.
By
recognizing the Russian proxy separatist areas of Luhansk and Donetsk as
independent, he had already decided they were no longer part of Ukraine. Then
he revealed that he supported their claims too far more Ukrainian territory. The
self-styled people's republics cover little more than a third of the whole of
Ukraine's Luhansk and Donetsk regions but the rebels covet the rest, too.
How dangerous is this invasion for Europe?
These are terrifying times for the people
of Ukraine and horrifying for the rest of the continent, witnessing a major
power invading a European neighbor for the first time since World War Two.
Dozens have died already in what Germany
has dubbed "Putin's war", both civilians and soldiers. And for
Europe's leaders, this invasion has brought some of the darkest hours since the
1940s. It was, said France's Emmanuel Macron, a turning point in Europe's
history. Recalling the Cold War days of the Soviet Union, Volodymyr Zelensky
spoke of Ukraine's bid to avoid a new iron curtain closing Russia off from the
civilized world.
For the families of both armed forces, there will be anxious days ahead. Ukrainians have already suffered a grueling
eight-year war with Russian proxies. The military has called up all reservists
aged 18 to 60 years old. Top US military official Mark Milley said the scale of
Russian forces would mean a "horrific" scenario with conflict in
dense urban areas.
The invasion has knock-on effects for many
other countries bordering both Russia and Ukraine. Latvia, Poland, and Moldova
say they are preparing for a big influx of refugees. A state of emergency has
been declared in Lithuania and Moldova, where thousands of women and children
have already entered.
This is not a war that Russia's population
was prepared for either, as the invasion was rubber-stamped by a largely
unrepresentative upper house of parliament.
What
can the West do?
Nato has put warplanes on alert but the
Western alliance has made clear there are no plans to send combat troops to
Ukraine itself. Instead, they have offered advisers, weapons, and field
hospitals. Meanwhile, 5,000 Nato troops have been deployed in the Baltic states
and Poland. Another 4,000 could be sent to Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and
Slovakia.
Instead, the West is targeting Russia's
economy, industry and individuals.
- The EU has
promised to restrict Russian access to capital markets and cut off its
industry from the latest technology. It has already imposed sanctions on 351
MPs who backed Russia's recognition of the rebel-held regions
- Germany has
halted approval on Russia's Nord Stream 2
gas pipeline, a major investment by both Russian and European
companies
- The US says it
will cut off Russia's government from Western financial institutions and
target high-ranking "elites"
- The UK says all
major Russian banks would have their assets frozen, with 100 individuals
and entities targeted; and Russia's national airline Aeroflot will also be
banned from landing in the UK.
Ukraine has urged its allies to stop
buying Russian oil and gas. The three Baltic states have called on the whole
international community to disconnect Russia's banking system from the
international Swift payment system. That could badly impact the US and European
economies.
The Russian city of St Petersburg will no
longer be able to host this year's Champions League final for security reasons.
Europe's football governing body Uefa is also planning further measures.
What
does Putin want?
President Putin partly blamed his decision
to attack Nato's eastward expansion. He earlier complained Russia had
"nowhere further to retreat to - do they think we'll just sit idly
by?"
Ukraine is seeking a clear timeline to
join Nato and Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov explained:
"For us, it's absolutely mandatory to ensure Ukraine never, ever becomes a
member of Nato."
Last
year President Putin wrote a long piece describing Russians and Ukrainians as
"one nation", and he has described the collapse of the Soviet Union
in December 1991 as the "disintegration of historical Russia". He has
claimed modern Ukraine was entirely created by communist Russia and is now a
puppet state, controlled by the West.
President Putin has also argued that if
Ukraine joined Nato, the alliance might try to recapture Crimea.
But Russia is not just focused on Ukraine.
It demands that Nato return to its pre-1997 borders.
Mr. Putin wants Nato to remove its forces
and military infrastructure from member states that joined the alliance in
1997 and not to deploy "strike weapons near Russia's borders". That
means Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and the Baltics.
In President Putin's eyes, the West
promised back in 1990 that Nato would expand "not an inch to the
east" but did so anyway.
That was before the collapse of the Soviet
Union, however, so the promise made to then-Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev
only referred to East Germany in the context of a reunified Germany.
Mr. Gorbachev said later "the topic of
Nato expansion was never discussed" at the time.
What
has Nato said?
Nato is a defensive alliance with an
open-door policy to new members, and its 30 member states are adamant that will
not change.
There is no prospect of Ukraine joining
for a long time, as Germany's chancellor has made clear.
But the idea that any current Nato country
would give up its membership is a non-starter.
By Paul Kirby
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