The talks do not appear to have produced a
substantive change in the position of either side, with the White House readout of
the call evidencing that the US is continuing to allude to taking action
against China but also, unusually, that Biden referenced Taiwan. The US
president warned Beijing that there would be “implications and consequences
if China provides material support to Russia.”
In response, President Xi said China has
always stood for “peace and opposes war.” “All sides need to jointly
support Russia and Ukraine in having dialogue and negotiation that will produce
results and lead to peace,” he stressed, adding that NATO and the US
should also engage in talks with Moscow.
This was the first known discussion
between the American and Chinese leaders since November. It followed a meeting at the beginning of the week in Rome between
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and China’s leading diplomat, Yang
Jiechi.
The US has
made it clear that it will impose “costs” on Beijing if it is deemed to
be “supporting” Russia. Earlier this week, several Western media outlets
claimed Moscow had asked Beijing “for equipment and other kinds of
unspecified military assistance” to aid its offensive in Ukraine. Beijing
has dismissed the allegations, with the spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in
Washington, Liu Pengyu, saying of Russia’s alleged request that China “had
never heard of that,” and adding that his country’s priority was “to
prevent the tense situation from escalating or even getting out of control.”
It’s likely the allegation was designed to both embarrass Beijing and further
promulgate the narrative that Russia’s war effort is failing.
China is a
cautious geopolitical player. It has a foreign policy premised on seeking
stability and prioritizing its own economic development. Because of that, it
does not and will not openly support the war in Ukraine. However, these
concerns don’t mean Xi Jinping is going to jump into America’s arms and
confront Moscow.
While
China undoubtedly wishes for a peaceful resolution, it owes the United States
nothing, and it recognizes that turning against Russia would involve exchanging
long-term strategic considerations for short-term certainties. After all, once
the crisis in Ukraine is over, it will be full steam ahead for the US’
Indo-Pacific strategy and business as usual when it comes to its containment of
Beijing.
Last
month, just before the opening of the Winter Olympics, Vladimir Putin met with
Xi Jinping and sealed a “no limits” friendship between their two countries, affirming a
joint vision for a multipolar world. The Russia-China partnership has
strengthened considerably in recent years, each nation having faced the common
strategic enmity of the US and its allies, with Washington long seeking to
contain both in the pursuit of unipolar hegemony and to crush all of its
competitors along the way.
Moscow and Beijing have differing
interests in a number of respective areas, but a consensus forged on the
premise that they provide each other political space and act as a counterweight
to the US and its alliances, being invested in a multipolar environment.
Although Russia’s offensive in Ukraine has
distracted Washington from its Indo-Pacific agenda, it has also provoked
uncertainty in the markets, allowed the US to increase its clout in the EU, and
encouraged Taiwan to exploit the crisis so as to build more political space for
itself. China also had a strong trading relationship with Ukraine, which joined its
Belt and Road Initiative back in 2017.
It’s clear the US is seeking to use the
crisis to drive a wedge between Beijing and its allies, and, in its bid to
isolate both Russia and China, is aiming to frame Beijing as being complicit in
Moscow’s “special operation.” It will no doubt reset its strategic
priorities as the war continues. However, for a number of reasons, this is
unlikely to change China’s calculus.
First, even if Beijing were to explicitly act against Moscow, the US would not change its current course on China as a reward. Beijing, therefore, has no reason either to trust or barter with Washington. It should not be forgotten that, prior to the Ukraine conflict, the US was effectively accusing China of genocide against the Uighurs, had orchestrated a smear campaign against the Winter Olympics, had blacklisted ever-growing numbers of its companies, had created hostile military blocs such as AUKUS (Australia, the UK, and the US), the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the US), and was trying to move the needle on Taiwan. One would be naïve to assume Washington would reverse course on any of this in the vain hope Beijing would turn against Moscow and dump its key strategic partner just to appease the US and its allies.
Second, China recognizes that the US views
it as its primary threat and competitor, perceiving Russia as having less
capacity to compete on a global scale in terms of economics and technology.
While Beijing may continue to call for peace and dialogue in Ukraine, it will
nonetheless continue to align itself with Moscow when it comes to opposing the
expansion of NATO, calling instead
for a “balanced, effective, and sustainable security mechanism.” This is
in line with its existing position on the creation of US-led alliance blocs
targeting nations such as China, and the Cold War mentality that has been
evoked as a consequence. China has made no secret of its view that the US is “on the wrong side of history.”
In conclusion, while China doesn’t like
the uncertainty of the conflict in Ukraine, it owes the US no favors when it
comes to the part it will play in restoring stability. Having been intent on
waging a Cold War against Beijing, Washington is now attempting to control its
response to the Ukrainian crisis while continuing to alternately threaten and
coerce it. As a result, when it comes to its strategic partnership with Russia,
it has simply dug in its heels.
While China and Russia don’t share the
same world view, they’ve been brought together by the political currents of the
West, which arrogantly believes it can impose its dominance and expand its
spheres of influence without consequences. Though China will engage in dialogue
with the US, there’s going to be no 21st-century repeat of the Sino-Soviet
split, whatever the US might have hoped.
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