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| The identity of the American nation between the Republican camp and the Democratic camp |
No other developed country in the world
frets over the possibility of a civil war more than the United States. Perhaps
that’s because the memory of the first one (1861-65), the deadliest military
conflict in American history, was so utterly devastating that it is impossible
to shake. Or maybe Americans genuinely see no other way out of the impasse they
currently face than by going to war against themselves.
In yet another one of those perennial
polls that seem determined to inspire a self-fulfilling prophecy, The Economist
and YouGov asked Americans about changes in the US political climate.
Two in five of the respondents believe a civil war is at least “somewhat
likely” in the next decade; Republicans are more likely than Democrats to
expect a civil war. Few see things improving in the coming years: 62% expect increased political divisions.
It could almost be argued that the United
States, having suffered a long, hot summer of Black Lives Matter protests,
followed by the storming of the Capitol on January 6, is already experiencing a
civil war, but it just hasn’t been officially announced yet. Is it necessary to
have another Battle of Gettysburg with standing armies and thousands dead to
fit the definition of ‘civil war? In any case, the FBI raid on Mar-A-Lago,
Donald Trump’s Florida estate, certainly underscored the climate of political
divisiveness as a prelude to major unrest. Republicans saw this as the latest
proof that the establishment has no interest in playing by the rules. The “weaponized
federal agencies” that tend to move so swiftly and viciously against the
right, conservatives argue, never show the same enthusiasm when addressing the
alleged wrongs of the left.
Meanwhile,
the situation on the cultural front seems no less tenable. We’re talking about
a country that is 65% Christian and 50% Conservative struggling to come to
grips with an explosion of fiercely controversial ideas – from Critical Race
Theory, which seeks to blame the white race for all of the problems now
besetting minorities, to transgenderism, which postulates the idea that gender
is not determined by the biological sex of an individual, but rather whatever he
or she (or they, or any of the open list of pronouns) believes himself to be.
And how many Drag Queen Story Hours can the public mind handle before something
gives?
What many
Americans find so unsustainable is that there seems to be no escape, no way of
opting out, no way of protecting even the children from the cultural sea
changes underway. Last year, Stacy Langton, a mother of six from Virginia,
confronted teachers during a school board meeting over books available
to students in the school library. Carrying titles like ‘Lawn Boy’ and ‘Gender
Queer: A Memoir, the books depicted sex between men and boys, with one
describing a fourth-grader performing oral sex on an adult male. Despite the
uproar the revelations caused, the school district refused to remove the books
from the shelves as the political temperature in the United States rose to another
degree.
So while it is not difficult to
demonstrate that there is a veritable chasm now separating the American people,
does that prove civil war is on the horizon? Nobody knows. The exact breaking
point that causes people to say ‘enough’ and take up arms against their
brethren has yet to be established. Perhaps the conditions for civil war are
even riper now than they were in Lincoln’s day, but Americans have simply
become too comfortable and self-satisfied to fight. While there will always be
a few impulsive youths with nothing to lose to join the rabble, convincing the
bulk of the US middle class to give up their cushiony Netflix lifestyles just
to fight for a cause seems very unlikely. The rugged, pioneering spirit that
defined the times in 1861 is a far cry from its modern incarnation. Today, many
Americans are content to wage ‘civil war’ over social media, debating the
issues against faceless opponents while the country beyond its window becomes
an increasingly violent place.
Although it seems unlikely that the United
States will disintegrate into pitched battles anytime soon, it can’t be
forgotten that there are more guns in the nation’s closet than internet
subscriptions. This gives those frustrated individuals the means to ‘express
themselves without the need to wait for the bugle call. Thus, instead of
witnessing a replay of Fort Sumpter, Americans can expect to see a rash of
individual actors lashing out in desperation at a society they no longer
understand.
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